{"id":2083,"date":"2021-02-25T21:53:07","date_gmt":"2021-02-25T20:53:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/esgfireat40.frontender.se\/uncategorized\/extreme-weekly-portfolio-update-2\/"},"modified":"2022-01-25T09:59:12","modified_gmt":"2022-01-25T08:59:12","slug":"massive-opportunity-in-the-school-bus-ev-sector","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/esgfire.com\/sv\/business-analysis\/massive-opportunity-in-the-school-bus-ev-sector\/","title":{"rendered":"Massive opportunity in the school bus ev sector"},"content":{"rendered":"

Company: Blue Bird Corp
\nBusiness: School bus manufacturing
\nTicker symbol: BLBD
\nListing: Nasdaq USA
\nMarket cap: 720 Million USD
\nShare price: 26,55 USD
\nTurnover: 879 Million USD in 2020
\nWebsite:\u00a0https:\/\/www.blue-bird.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Company introduction:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Blue Bird Corp<\/strong>\u00a0(BLBD) is the leading school bus manufacturer in the US that has developed an electric vehicle solution already available for large scale commercialization. With schools about to open up again, BLBD will face an explosion of pent-up demand for electric school buses. BLBD is significantly undervalued relative to EV peers and even more so as a reopening play.Biden\u2019s 500,000 electric school buses in five years plan is a great opportunity for BLBD\u2019s school bus niche. A narrative shift comparable to the contract that moved Workhorse\u2019s valuation to $4B+ will most likely move BLBD multiples a lot higher.<\/p>\n

Peer evaluation comparison:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

As you can see above Blue Bird Corp is massively undervalued to comparable peers at least when it comes to using EV\/revenue as an evaluation multiple which is something that the EV market in general looks to as a meaningfull comparison.<\/p>\n

The three noted electric school bus peers above are valued on future revenue and largely unproven business models. Unlike its peers, Blue Bird Corp has a proven fleet of reliable vehicles, along-side electric buses already being commercialized. As opposed to speculating on growth in future years, investing in Blue Bird Corp, which is not only profitable, but already controls a majority stake of the EV market for school buses could be a wise choice.<\/p>\n

Undervalued and Underappreciated
\n<\/strong>
\nBlue Bird Corp\u00a0<\/strong>(BLBD) is an undiscovered powerhouse in the electric vehicle (EV) space. Its most likely the best EV value for money in the market today and is set to dominate the upcoming EV school bus manufacturing explosion.<\/p>\n

BLBD is the leading independent designer and manufacturer of school buses in the United States, with over 150,000 buses in operation today. BLBD is also the market leader in alternative fuel applications with its propane powered, electric, and compressed natural gas-powered school buses. BLBD is most likely the immediate front runner to capitalize on the school bus electrification plans of the Biden Administration. With child safety of the utmost importance, we believe BLBD\u2019s decades of experience in manufacturing buses and its extensive relationships with school boards, give it a powerful edge against competitors.<\/p>\n

To date, BLBD is and remains the #1 electric school bus manufacturer in the US. On 12\/9\/20, BLBD\u00a0announced<\/a>\u00a0it had delivered its 300th electric school bus, more than every other company combined. As noted on page 8 of BLBD\u2019s\u00a07\/21\/20 investor presentation<\/a>, an electric school bus currently costs $350K vs. $100K for its diesel fueled one. Although the 3.5x premium appears pricey, the operational and maintenance costs are lower compared to diesel. With federal mandates now enacted, subsidies will cover the lion\u2019s share of the cost.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

BLBD has a 20-year history of profitability, and a reputation for safety. With children\u2019s safety playing the most critical role in the decision-making process, we think BLBD will be the obvious choice for schools and districts. An example of bus safety gone bad, BLBD\u2019s competitor Proterra\u2019s entire fleet was taken off the road in\u00a0February 2020<\/a>\u00a0in Philadelphia due to mechanical issues \u2013 the third fleet issue identified within a year.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Biden\u2019s election victory over Trump was a big victory for BLBD. Immediately after inauguration, Biden instituted his \u201cBack to School\u201d reopening pledge. We believe this provides a near-term margin of safety for getting school buses back on the road, and for BLBD\u2019s business to accelerate forward again. Horlock stated on 2\/10\/21 in the\u00a0fiscal Q121 earnings call<\/a>:<\/p>\n

When schools are closed, buses aren\u2019t being ordered. The good news is that when schools are open, it\u2019s business as usual, with school bus orders being placed. That\u2019s great for us to know as we move forward. Following the recent holiday break, however, we have been seeing more schools resuming in-classroom teaching, and that\u2019s led to increased quarter activity for our new buses.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

 <\/p>\n

As stated in\u00a0this article<\/a>, Biden wants to open most schools within his first 100 days in office. Biden called on Congress to direct at least $130B to schools, and $350B to state and local governments to help prevent school layoffs. Teachers remain on track as the next in line to receive a COVID vaccine after essential workers. We think the clear path forward will make for an aggressive buying season for EV school buses as early as the fall.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Evaluation and business case Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n

At its current valuation, BLBD provides ample margin of safety on the legacy school bus business, with multi-bagger upside on the inevitable conversion to electric.
\nIf the Biden administration is serious about replacing the 500,000 school buses to electric within 5 years, BLBD will need a lot more capacity. For example, if BLBD reaches a production capacity of 10K school buses per year, that would give the company $3.5B in annual revenues for its electric school buses. If we apply an EV\/Revenue evaluation of 5 for BLBD ( which is 50 % below Proterra\u2019s current multiple)\u00a0we get a market cap of 17,5 billion USD. Compared to todays market cap of 720 million USD. This example equals an upside of staggering 24 times todays share price = 645 USD<\/strong>\u00a0and that based on relatively conservative multiples for the EV sector.<\/p>\n

Remember the US market for switching 500 000 school buses to electric propulsion is worth 100 billion USD and the evaluation example above only assumes a market share of 3,5 % of this, and thats for the market leader in the alternative fuels sector of school buses namely Blue Bird Corp.<\/p>\n

Credit in this post is given to White Diamond Research which created the original report on this great company.<\/p>\n

As always do your own research and this is not to be considered financial advice in any way.<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Company: Blue Bird Corp Business: School bus manufacturing Ticker symbol: BLBD Listing: Nasdaq USA Market cap: 720 Million USD Share price: 26,55 USD Turnover: 879 Million USD in 2020 Website:\u00a0https:\/\/www.blue-bird.com\/ Company introduction: Blue Bird Corp\u00a0(BLBD) is the leading school bus manufacturer in the US that has developed an electric vehicle solution already available for large […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2084,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[148,127],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2083","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-posts","category-business-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nMassive opportunity in the school bus ev sector - ESG Fire<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/esgfire.com\/sv\/business-analysis\/massive-opportunity-in-the-school-bus-ev-sector\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Massive opportunity in the school bus ev sector - 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