Originally published on 2/10 2025

ESGFIRE returns since 2018: + 1000 %

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Market outlook and Smallcap overview

October began with the S&P 500 hitting fresh highs. A few weeks later, a U.S. budget impasse and revived trade rhetoric with China sparked a swift 2.7 % slide. Even so, the overall trend is still positive: by 20 October the S&P 500 was about 15.7 % higher year‑to‑date. Communications, utilities and tech led gains of 24–26 %, while energy and consumer discretionary trailed. Overseas equities have helped diversify returns, with emerging markets up roughly 31 % YTD, and bonds providing a 7.4 % lift.

On 30 October, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps, putting the new range at 3.75–4.00 %, and announced an end to balance‑sheet reduction. Big‑cap indexes barely budged, but the Russell 2000 slipped 0.9 %. Policymakers emphasised that further cuts are not certain, making upcoming inflation and employment reports pivotal.

Small‑caps and sustainability themes

Small‑cap stocks have reasserted themselves; the Russell 2000 climbed around 12 % in Q3 versus roughly 8 % for large capsfranklintempleton.co.uk, and stood about 13 % higher YTD by mid‑October. Valuations remain attractive relative to mega‑caps, offering room for further catch‑up.
Meanwhile, investment in clean technology keeps rising. During the first nine months of 2025, roughly $56 billion poured into clean energy projects, eclipsing 2024’s full‑year total. Large capital raises by CATL, BYD and Iberdrola and billion‑dollar commitments from Brookfield and JPMorgan highlight the growth in batteries, EVs and renewables. The EU’s first €1 billion auction to decarbonise industrial heat further illustrates supportive policy. These flows create favourable conditions for small and mid‑cap companies in electric delivery vehicles, regenerative agriculture and compostable packaging.

Takeaways for investors

-Small‑cap catch‑up:
After years of lagging, small‑cap stocks gained about 12 % in Q3 versus roughly 8 % for large‑capsfranklintempleton.co.uk. As of mid‑October, the Russell 2000 was around +13 % YTD. This rebound has been broad‑based, unlike large‑cap gains that remain concentrated in a handful of mega‑cap tech names. For investors, the takeaway is that smaller companies are beginning to close the performance gap and still trade at a discount relative to big caps—an opportunity to watch.

-Sector rotation signals:
The strength of communications, utilities and tech underscores investors’ preference for asset‑light, cash‑generative businesses in a cautious growth environment. Energy’s weakness suggests lingering concerns about commodity prices and geopolitical risks. Tactically minded investors might look for cyclicals that could benefit if economic data improves.

-Interest‑rate sensitivity: Small‑cap earnings and valuations are more exposed to financing costs. The October rate cut provided some relief, but the Fed’s data‑dependent stance means volatility could return. Staying nimble and diversified across sectors and maturities can help manage this risk.

NEW ADDITION: ESGFIRE Watchlist

Our watchlist is a curated list of promising, undervalued companies that we follow closely. These names have strong fundamentals and catalysts, but have not yet been added to the ESGFIRE portfolio. We monitor their progress and may choose to invest when valuations and timing align with our strategy.

 

EVgo (NASDAQ: EVGO)

EVgo operates one of the largest public fast-charging networks in the U.S., with more than 1,100 fast charging stations across over 40 states . Despite this leadership and surging revenue (up 234% year-over-year to $35.1 million last quarter) , the stock remains 22% down year-to-date . EVgo’s valuation looks compressed – its price-to-sales ratio is only about 1.9× – suggesting a high-conviction opportunity as the company’s growth trajectory continues and the turnaround case improves to cashflow positive.

Revolve Renewable Power (TSX-V: REVV)

Revolve develops utility-scale renewable energy projects (wind, solar, and battery storage) across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico . It trades at a tiny market cap (around CA$17–19 million), yet recently sold two large solar-and-storage projects to ENGIE in a deal potentially worth over US$50 million – a sum several times the company’s valuation. Management deems the stock “extremely undervalued” given its pipeline and revenue outlook . In FY2025 Revolve’s recurring energy revenue jumped 73% , and with a 3 GW+ project pipeline in late-stage development, the upside potential is significant.

Electrovaya (NASDAQ: ELVA)

Electrovaya is a lithium-ion battery manufacturer supplying energy storage systems and electric vehicle battery solutions in North America . The company just delivered record financial results – Q3 2025 revenue rose 67% to $17.1 million with a 30.8% gross margin , and it achieved a net profit for the quarter . For the full fiscal year 2025, Electrovaya surpassed $64 million in revenue and has logged nine consecutive quarters of positive EBITDA . Yet its stock (around CA$9 per share) trades at roughly half of its estimated intrinsic value (CA$19.51) . Analysts forecast 41% annual earnings growth ahead , underscoring why this profitable clean-tech play appears undervalued.

Greenlane Renewables (TSX: GRN)

Greenlane provides biogas upgrading systems that turn landfill gas and other biogas into pipeline-grade renewable natural gas (RNG) . After a challenging 2024, Greenlane’s Q2 2025 results marked a turnaround: revenue grew modestly to $15.1 million but adjusted EBITDA margin hit 23%, and the company swung from a loss to $1.4 million in net profit . It also holds a $26.3 million sales backlog (up 24% quarter-over-quarter) and ended Q2 with $16.6 million in cash and zero debt . With new patents for its next-gen landfill gas tech and a leaner cost base (G&A down 28% YoY) , Greenlane is positioned as a high-conviction pick in a nascent $100 billion+ RNG market . The stock’s recent rally (up ~167% over three months) still leaves it near $0.26 per share , suggesting substantial room for further upside as profitability and sector tailwinds strengthen.

Veritone (NASDAQ: VERI)

Veritone builds enterprise AI platforms (notably its aiWARE operating system) that help organizations in media, entertainment, advertising and the public sector analyze and monetize large volumes of audio, video and text data . The stock has been beaten down in the past year, but the company’s fundamentals are improving: preliminary Q3 2025 revenue came in around $28.6 million (up 30.5% year-on-year) , and Veritone recently won a multi-year U.S. Air Force AI contract as the sole-source provider for advanced analytics . Management has also built a $20 million+ sales pipeline in its Generative AI and data platform offerings . Wall Street sees significant upside – one analyst’s price target of $25 implies ~423% above recent trading levels . With new federal contracts, “hyperscaler” cloud partnerships, and a path toward breakeven EBITDA by 2026, Veritone looks like a high-conviction turnaround candidate rather than a typical risky AI stock.

Beam Global (NASDAQ: BEEM)

Beam Global produces off-grid, solar-powered charging stations and energy storage systems for electric vehicles and emergency power . Its innovative EV ARC units and newly acquired European battery technology arm give Beam a unique edge in providing resilient, renewably powered charging infrastructure. The company’s growth has accelerated – Q3 revenues jumped 149% to $16.5 million, beating expectations, and its order backlog exceeds $31 million . Despite this strong growth (and a $100M+ sales pipeline in place) , Beam’s market cap is only about $47 million , equating to a <1× sales multiple . Analysts rate the stock a Buy with an average price target more than 100% above the current price . With improving margins and patented tech (e.g. a new thermal battery patent for extreme climates) , Beam Global appears deeply undervalued relative to its clean-tech infrastructure potential.

Current ESGFIRE Portfolio Public holdings:

Clean Motion (Public EV Manufacturer) – October 2025 Update

Performance YTD (Jan 1–Oct 31): Approximately –15 %.

Key October developments

-GIANTS project milestone:
On 22 October 2025, Clean Motion announced that the EU Horizon Europe project GIANTS had reached its midpoint. The consortium—which uses Clean Motion’s solar‑assisted EVIG as a base—is developing a modular, zero‑emission L‑type vehicle platform. The project is now fully specified and moving from the planning phase into physical testing. Demonstration vehicles will be built and evaluated in cities such as Gothenburg, Brugge, Kisumu, Delhi and Manila. Clean Motion stressed that this milestone underscores the viability of its lightweight, energy‑efficient EV concept.

-Quiet operational month:
Aside from the GIANTS announcement, there were no major press releases in October. The September updates—new market entry in Finland, follow‑up orders in the Netherlands, and a Swedish municipal pilot—remain the latest commercial developments.

Our take:
October brought limited newsflow but a strategically important validation. Participation in the GIANTS project places Clean Motion at the centre of a European initiative to standardise lightweight EV platforms. The stock drifted lower in the absence of fresh orders; investors should monitor conversion of existing pilots (e.g., Partille municipality and LMe Solutions) and any financing updates ahead of year‑end.

Replenish Nutrients (Public Sustainable Fertiliser) – October 2025 Update

Performance YTD (Jan 1–Oct 31): Approximately +200 %.

Key October developments

-Beiseker facility ramp‑up continues:
The company issued no new press releases in October. Commissioning and automation work at the Beiseker granulation plant in Alberta progressed toward full capacity. Previous updates indicate the facility is designed to produce ~2,000 tonnes per month and has firm orders for its initial 6,000 tonnes of output.

-Pellet product and licensing model roll‑out:
The pelletised fertiliser product and capital‑light licensing agreement with MJ Ag Solutions—announced in September—remained in focus. Under this model, MJ Ag Solutions manufactures pellets using Replenish’s formulations while Replenish receives licensing revenue. Initial production is expected to ramp to about 800 tonnes per month for northern Alberta farmers, creating a second growth avenue alongside Beiseker granulation.

Our take:
October served as a consolidation period for Replenish. With Beiseker commissioning nearing completion and the pellet licensing programme ramping up, the company is poised for a significant revenue inflection in late 2025. Investors should watch for announcements about full production at Beiseker, additional licensing partners, and the upcoming Q3 results to assess how quickly the order backlog converts into sales.

Non public investment portfolio Outlook

 

Ola Media (Pre-IPO Digital Media) – October 2025 Update

Status (unchanged since September):
Ola Media remained quiet in October. As of ESGFIRE’s September report, the company had no public announcements and was continuing late‑stage preparations for a projected Q4 2025 / Q1 2026 IPO. Those circumstances persisted through October: the team is still working behind the scenes on platform enhancements, revenue growth and organizational readiness. We anticipate more substantive updates once the IPO process formally begins (e.g. regulatory filings or an official announcement).

Our take:
With no news during October, our view of Ola Media is unchanged. We still expect the company to come to market toward year‑end and will monitor for any pre‑IPO indicators.

Alchemy (Pre-IPO Nanotechnology) – October 2025 Update

Status (unchanged since September):
There were no public updates in October for Alchemy. ESGFIRE’s September report noted that the company’s late‑2025 listing remained the internal target and that Alchemy was still operating in stealth, focusing on commercialization and potential strategic partnerships. Those dynamics continued through October.

ESGFIRE’s outlook:
We remain constructive on Alchemy’s dual‑sector exposure—automotive nanocoatings and defence camouflage—highlighting that defence contracts already generate meaningful revenue and that Canadian defence R&D spending is rising. We continue to expect substantial upside (estimated 300–500 %) at IPO thanks to Alchemy’s scaling progress and patent portfolio.

Evanesce Packaging Solutions (Pre-IPO Sustainable Packaging) – October 2025 Update

Status (unchanged since September):
Evanesce issued no material public announcements in October. As noted in the September ESGFIRE report, the company is continuing its commercial ramp and preparing for a late‑2025 IPO, buoyed by regulatory momentum around sustainable packaging. The most recent public milestones remain U.S. facility build‑outs and leadership hires prior to September.

Our take:
With no new releases in October, Evanesce’s narrative stays the same: it is steadily scaling production and readying for a listing next year. We will watch for updates on customer orders, manufacturing capacity and IPO timing as 2025 progresses.

About us:
ESGFIRE is a Swedish investment company and research firm that focuses on companies with either an environmentally friendly service or product. ESGFIRE has a performance record of over 1000 % returns since 2018. By only investing in environmentally friendly companies, ESGFIRE have outperformed the major indexes for several years. We have a track record of over 1100 % returns since 2018 using our own proven method of identifying high potential ESG companies.

 

Contact details
Website: www.esgfire.com
CEO: Filip Erhardt
Email: Filip@esgfire.com
Telephone:+46701609605

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